Sunderland possession stats could determine outcome vs Newcastle United
Sunderland have lost an alarming number of games when they have had more possession.
Form has been hard to come by as of late for the Black Cats, who enter Sunday’s Tyne-Wear derby against Newcastle stripped of the confidence that had seen them emerge as candidates for European football.
Injuries have played a big part in that, with the likes of Nordi Mukiele, Reinildo, Robin Roefs and Nilson Angulo all out injured, with hopes that some could return in time for the weekend.
However, that is far from being the only reason.
Their lack of wins in games where they have had more possession than their opponent is also of concern, and Regis Le Bris will need to make note of that if they are to return to winning ways against their rivals.
How have Sunderland fared in games with more possession?
Under the stewardship of Le Bris, Sunderland have adopted a defend-first mentality, and it has brought success.
The Wearsiders are already on 40 points, which will almost certainly keep them in the Premier League, and it was certainly the right way to go about the season as a newly-promoted team.
| Premier League | Sunderland |
| Position | 13th |
| Points | 40 |
| Goals scored | 30 |
| Goals conceded | 35 |
However, the handbrake is still on at the Stadium of Light, and it is massively restricting their ability to win games where the pressure is on them to take the game to their opponent, as opposed to the opposite.
Sunderland have lost 16 of their 35 games under Le Bris when they have had more possession, compared to the nine from 50 that they have lost when they have had less.
The Black Cats’ counter-attacking style of play is nullified when they have possession, making it remarkably easy to defend against them.
And if that is to be the case against Newcastle on Sunday, especially with all of the injuries, they could be in for a rough ride.
What are Sunderland’s chances of victory?
Even with a full squad, Sunderland would be considered the underdogs for this game.
Newcastle have had strong form at home, and have assembled a team worth signficantly more than Sunderland paid to create theirs in the summer.
As a result, it will come as no surprise that Eddie Howe’s side have a 60.8 per cent chance of victory, as per Opta.
Sunderland have an 18.6 per cent chance of taking all three points and extending their unbeaten run against the Magpies in league competition.
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