Sunderland and Hull City join forces to dispel football’s biggest growing myth
Sunderland qualified for the Europa League while Hull achieved promotion back to the Premier League, both against the odds.
Sunday was a day to remember for everyone involved with Sunderland, with the Black Cats securing European football for the first time in over 50 years.
An opening goal from Trai Hume set the tone on Wearside, with Malo Gusto’s own goal ultimately the deciding goal in the game.
Just 24 hours prior, Oli McBurnie scored a dramatic injury-time goal for Hull City as they secured their spot in the Premier League at Middlesbrough’s expense.
And both teams achieved their success while ignoring one of the biggest myths that has started to emerge in English football.
The xG numbers behind Sunderland/Hull’s success
At the end of the day, the only number that matters is your points tally and the position in the table. And for Sunderland, they couldn’t have asked for more in that regard on their return to the top flight.
However, those heavily into stats have started to use xG as a key way to identify how good or bad a team really is over the course of a season.
| Premier League 25-26 | Sunderland |
| Expected goals | 38.9 |
| Actual goals scored | 42 |
In that regard, Sunderland ‘should’ have been relegated from the Premier League.
In the xG table, they sit 18th in the Premier League, with an expected points tally of 41, which would have seen them relegated by three points, hypothetically. They finished seventh.
It’s the same story for Hull, who, despite winning the play-offs after finishing sixth, were expected to finish 23rd in the Championship based on their xG for and against throughout the season.
Sunderland should not ignore xG stats fully
Just to reiterate, xG doesn’t shape a season like many across social media would have you believe.
However, there are a few indications that you can take from them, with Sunderland having recorded 38.9 xG throughout the season.
They overperformed that by 3.1 in the Premier League, but it does showcase that they have been lacking some quality when it comes to chance creation in the final third.
It’s far from being a major concern, but it will be something that they look at this summer, and may force them into adding more creativity to their squad, especially with the additional games that come with Europe to contend with.
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